真假“地震预警”辨


李尚勇(真实系统问题研究员,《大地震临震预报的曙光》作者)

[引言]对于7级和8级地震,震中20~30km范围内的震中区域地震强度为9~11度,是地震最集中的区域,但在此范围内,地震波报警几乎没用。在海城地震“人类地震史上第一次即将发生的地震预警”中,震中的数千名员工遭到破坏,没有人员伤亡。问题是2018年正式批准的“震后地震波报警工程”已投入近19亿元。本文的政策建议是将“大地震预报与预警”作为地震部门的中心工作,将“震后地震波报警”置于辅助位置,不花钱。

根据科学定义,“地震预警”是在“地震”之前提醒公众。警告发生在地震之前;地震发生后,有人提醒说“地震发生了”,这只是一个警报。

如今,它已经被主流媒体大肆宣传,并且它也被地震部门描述为“地震警告”。实际上,这只是一场“地震地震警报”。

地震波是地震破坏力的载体。地震波分为纵波(称为P波,快波)和横波(称为S波,慢波),而P波(快波)则快(地壳中的传播速度为5.5~ 7.0 km/s)但破坏力很小。 S波(慢波)很慢(地壳中的传播速度为3.2到4.0 km/s),但破坏力很大。地震发生后,P波在S波前到达地面。两者之间存在一定的时差。时差取决于从本地源到源的距离。距离越远,时差就越大。

它基于上述地震和慢波之间时差的性质。早年,各国科学家与政府机构合作开发了一系列“震后地震波报警系统”,长期以来一直在日本,美国,墨西哥,土耳其,意大利,瑞典和罗马尼亚。它已应用于许多地震国家和地区,如台湾。系统可以在检测到地震的P波后发出警报。在强大的S波到来之前,震中之外的人们将获得几秒到十几秒的宝贵逃生时间。 [1](见下图)

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该图片来自网络,版权已被删除

对于在“地震之后和地震之前”警告公众的方法,各国使用“地震波警报”或“地震警报”的概念。即使是目前“地震必须发射预警”的企业,在早期提供的信息中,“地震报警”的概念也被使用[2]。

然而,作者的研究表?鳎独钌杏拢旱卣鸩ūň环ㄈ〈蟮卣鹆僬鹪けā罚罢鸷蟮卣鸩ūň钡恼嬲侍馐牵海?1)在地震波报警时间较长且较丰富的地区,地震烈度倾向于需要较少的警报(“低”强度警报“实际上构成了对居民的”骚扰“。例如,在6月17日深夜,”61秒误报“骚扰了成都市民。四川长宁6级地震距离成都240公里,对成都居民没有危险。)(2)真正受益于“地震地震警报”的区域面积小(见图3)。(3)震中区及其周边区域,急需提前通知,“地震地震报警”处于“盲区”,即距震中20-30公里范围内,地震波报警时间理论上只有1.4-4.3秒(se e图3),实际报警时间较短,对防震和避免风险几乎没用。

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李尚勇:《地震波报警没法取代大地震临震预报》图3

对于7级和8级地震,地震强度高达震中的IX-XI(9~11度)和震中20~30km范围内的极端地震带。这是伤亡人数,特别是地震最多的人数集中的地区。但是,在此范围内,“地震地震警报”影响不大。

最近,主流地震专家不得不承认,震中是地震波报警的盲点:“目前,当地震震中确定需要三个以上的触发站纵波时,地震震级估计通常至少需要1个站点超过3秒的纵向波形。数据,以便第一个报告处理结果将在第一个站被触发后至少4秒发送,此时剪切波已经从震中传播超过20公里。因此,当发出警报警报(实际上是地震波警报)时,受地震破坏的剪切波覆盖的区域是地震警报的盲点[3]。

但是,上述问题不仅仅是逻辑错误和盗窃的概念,而是地震预防和减灾概念以及相关利益分配的大问题。

据“第一财经新闻”披露,“国家发展和改革委员会于2018年6月正式批准了国家地震烈度报告和预警项目,总投资近19亿元”[4]。这个所谓的“地震烈度报告和预警项目”实际上就是“地震地震波报警”项目。 “国家投资近19亿元人民币。”这块蛋糕大到足以使相关利益“不安”。

然而,故意将“地震地震报警”描述为“地震预警”,并在假“地震预警工程”上花了不少钱,严重误导了国家防震减灾的基本思路,并受到干扰与国家地震部门。大地震预测和预报的核心工作也使得该国在地震预防和减灾方面的投入偏离了地震预测的正确方向。

这大大增强了实现大地震地震预报和预警的现实可能性。如果本书的理论体系能够付诸实践(如“飞行员”),地震部门有望从目前难以理解的情况中再生,然后继续地震预报和警示的荣耀。

Suggestion: Take “Great Earthquake Prediction and Forecast” as the central work of the earthquake department, and put “post-earthquake earthquake wave alarm” on the auxiliary position, don’t spend money.

* * *

Piece".

According to the definition of this book, the so-called “strictly speaking” earthquake early warning refers to the pulse-type mutation of micro-monitoring data on the basis of the “small- and short-term precursory anomaly chain” that has formed a complete earthquake. A typical microscopic anomaly with the meaning of imminent earthquake indication, and based on this, a reliable imminent earthquake prediction is made, and then the imminent earthquake warning information is publicly released. The “earthquake warning” was issued by professional institutions and their experts, which is distinguished from the “earthquake prediction” issued by the government.

The author once said in《解读海城地震成功预报的真正原因》that under the guidance of the State Council’s 1974 mid-term forecast (No. 69), starting from more than seven months before the earthquake, "2273 people have been established in the southern Liaoning region to participate in the survey. The number of people reporting has reached 4,269." At the same time, Liaoning Province made great efforts to publicize and popularize the earthquake precursors and earthquake-proof and earthquake-resistant knowledge in various ways. The number of educated people reached 14 million, which is a household name.

This means that in the short-term phase of the earthquake, thousands of people participated in the micro-anomaly monitoring of key earthquake-stricken areas, and tens of millions of people participated in the observation and observation of macroscopic anomalies.

More than one month before the earthquake, the provincial government had three short-term false positives. This is equivalent to short-term forecasting and ringing alarms for the masses in key earthquake-stricken areas.

Therefore, when the “destructive” earthquake that has been eagerly awaited, it entered the imminent earthquake stage, and gradually appeared in the intensified multi-project microscopic anomalies, groundwater anomalies, animal anomalies, and eventually evolved into microscopic abnormal pulse jumps and macroscopic abnormal earthquakes. Even when the sequence of foreshocks began to become intense, the grassroots units and the masses in the epicenter that did not receive the official imminent earthquake predictions would naturally be on high alert.

xxRecord: On February 3, one day before the earthquake, the day before Yingkou County’s decision to release the imminent earthquake forecast, the county office received an instruction, “Don’t leak the earthquake to the masses”, which should include February. On the 1st to 3rd (that is, 3 days before the earthquake), the county office received important information about the impending earthquakes such as “destruction caused by the foreshocks, animal and (groundwater) water level anomalies”. [5]

Because of the above-mentioned secrecy system, the most basic units and people in the epicenter could not obtain a relatively complete epicenter earthquake like the earthquake department. However, they have repeatedly strengthened the "anti-magnitude" in two months, and they also A number of unofficial channels can be used to learn about some serious impending earthquake anomalies in the surrounding areas. These are enough for some grassroots units and individuals to take some anti-seismic and safe-haven measures according to local significant abnormal autonomy, thus effectively reducing casualties.

It is in this context that the Liaoning Metallurgical 102 Geological Team in the epicenter of the Haicheng Earthquake, based on the understanding of the “short-term precursory anomaly chain” of the large earthquake, relies on its own two groups of land-electricity anomalies and surrounding areas. The earthquake was abnormal, the decision was made decisively, and the earthquake warning was issued to the whole team, which avoided thousands of casualties in the whole team.

* * *

As mentioned above, since the earthquake departments at all levels in Liaoning Province have mastered the three stages of the earthquake, the bottom of the earthquake has a bottom, so in the late stage, that is, more than one month before the earthquake, it is conscious. The site strengthened the group test and prevention work. The Liaoning Metallurgical 102 geological team group measurement points were laid at this time.

The metallurgical 102 team test site is located in Yingkou County, Liaoning Province, about 20 kilometers from the epicenter. On January 4, 1975 (that is, there were two north and south, east and west land power stations (monitoring the earth's natural electric field), north-south lead-electrode, pole It is 60 meters away and buried 6 meters deep. It is read by DDC-3 electronic automatic compensator. (See the picture below)

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The image is from the web and the copyright is removed

xx1月8日(地震发生前28天),监测工作开始了。 11日,两组曲线均出现明显变化,通道势的南北向增加,东西向减小。

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图22辽宁冶金102地质队群测量点土地日电时数曲线

来源与描述:(1)图片来自邱永海等。《自然电场法预测地震》图1-10(a)和图1-11。

从图22(a)的曲线图可以看出,该组的自然电位值从1月8日开始的20天期间逐渐增加,并且潜在值在28天后开始减少,并且迅速下降2月1日之后。曲线非常陡峭,进入了即将来临的地震状态。它于2月4日推出。

图22(b)的小时图显示了海城地震前后2月1日至4日的自然电场的每小时值曲线。根据文献报道,自然潜在值从2月2日14:00(地震前2天)开始持续下降,并在20点达到约-80 mV的最小值后反弹。在3日(地震前1天),16:00后出现脉冲信号。地震前19小时(3日23:00至4:00),潜在值的强脉冲超过仪器极限1000mV,使仪表无法读取(即“爆炸表”)。 [6]

根据辽宁冶金集团102提供的数据,南北走向潜在值(日曲线)从1月12日迅速上升至20,并从80 mV上升至170 mV,引起了他们的注意(见图22a) )。从30日开始,上升的曲线已经转变并开始下降。它在2月2日的0:00降至130 mV,这更加明显。在2日早晨,曲线急剧下降。在对监测组进行分析后,推断出可能在5-6天内(即3天或4天内)发生大地震。监测人员立即向102名队长和营口县土地办公室报告,在队长的带领下,他们到营口市地震台同时报告了观察结果。

2月3日零时,南北电位急剧下降至80 mV。收到报告后,102队的主要负责人前往监测点与监测组人员分析地震情况。结合对周围地震信息的分析,推断“大地震不会立即发生,但曲线下降得如此之快,表明大地震必须超过原先推断的5~6天。”因此,我立即向营口县办事处报告了土地电力监测情况及其预测意见。

3日下午,地震进一步紧张。 “南北曲线突然下降到-20 mV,东西向曲线也从负到70 mV上升。同时,在仪器上观察到一些强烈的脉冲信号“;与此同时,附近的村民反映了牲畜异常的发生;公里外团队的员工报告说“(那里有地震感)”;县政府报告说,地震说:“在18:00至19:00之间共发生了9次2.4级或以下的地震。”

基于上述地震形势,102队的监测人员和团队负责人认为“大地震即将来临”,“立即通知团队成员”,“提高警惕,防止强烈地震可能随时发生“。 [7]

虽然这一即将来临的地震预测没有明确的“地震的三个要素”,谁能否认即将发生地震即将发出警告的明确含义?

辽宁冶金102地质队采取了一系列紧急对冲措施,因为“即时警告”(以及严格意义上的迫在眉睫的警告)。第二天,海城发生了7.3级地震。虽然它们位于震中的震中区,但地震的强度高达IX度(9度),房屋严重受损。但是,整个团队的家庭成员都没有超过1000人伤亡。

这应该是人类防震史上的第一次地震,地震监测人员和基层领导,地震发生第一天的第一次大地震,“即时地震预警”!

Obviously, when the monitoring personnel and team leaders of the 102 team made the imminent judgment (imminent earthquake prediction), the “sequence pre-earthquake” of the Haicheng earthquake was just beginning (see Figure 18), and it was not obvious that it had obvious imminent indications. Moreover, the strong pulse signal exceeding the meter limit value of 1000mV has not yet appeared, that is, this typical imminent earthquake index sufficient to support the large earthquake imminent earthquake prediction, they also do not use. So, why do they conclude that the "Great Earthquake"?

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Figure 18 Pre-seismic sequence of the 1975 Haicheng 7.3 earthquake

The author's research unveiled this "mystery": their main basis is that the State Council has a medium-term forecast of destructive earthquakes; the provincial government has several earthquake reports (including three short-term false positives); The purpose of deploying group survey points in Team 102 is to monitor short-term and impending earthquake microscopic anomalies and capture the upcoming strong earthquakes; with their own monitoring potential values appearing more and more serious abnormalities, and for a month Sharing the severe earthquake information around the earthquake with the Yingkou County Office, they are in fact in a state of imminent alert. Therefore, the complete "mid-short-term precursory anomaly chain" of this major earthquake in the close monitoring has been formed in this "first-line" group measurement point and its leadership. At this time, their own land power has a very serious information about the sudden earthquake sudden jump, combined with a series of severe earthquakes around the scene (including macroscopic anomalies nearby, the sequence of the foreshocks just started and just beside), they made the imminent earthquake prediction And the release of Lin Zhen early warning is a matter of course.

* * *

One misunderstanding is that the Liaoning Metallurgical Group 102 used a land monitoring point to realize the earthquake prediction. According to this logic, by installing one or several monitoring instruments, it is possible to realize the earthquake prediction and warning of large earthquakes. This idea is naive and impractical.

xx安装一个或多个监测仪器,几乎无法预测5级以下的一些中小型地震,但对于即将发生的地震预测和7级和8级地震的预警,就是“骑自行车去天堂”。

根据本书的(技术和制度)理论,必须构建以下两个“网”,以通过经验前兆异常实现即将发生的7级和8级地震的地震预测和预警:微观异常监测网络和宏观异常观测网络。其中,任何一种仪器,一个监测点,都只能是微监测“网”中的“节点”。在上述两个“网”全部正常运行的情况下,它才能真正发挥防震减灾的作用。

事实上,在一开始,如果没有一系列技术措施和组织措施,以防止上半年海城地震上半年“破坏性地震”从上到下(关键是要建立一个群体监测和预防微观监测网络发射群众捕获在宏观异常的情况下,基层单位不可能形成大地震的“中短期前兆异常链”。在这种情况下,甚至如果冶金102团队发现自己的陆地力量跳跃异常,就不能断定“一场大地震即将发生。”因为,在地震发生前几个月,陆地力量跳跃偶尔会出现,但事实并非如此。 “立即发生大地震”。

更重要的是,冶金102团队监测点只是海城地震微异常监测网络的“节点”。从理论上讲,它只能做出“点”贡献。在这一点上,它的短期异常和迫在眉睫的突然跳跃是“确定性的”,这就足够了。至于即将发生的地震预测及其即将发出的警告,只是它的额外贡献,而不是它的职责。

大地震即将发生的地震预报警告不能指望由一个或多个监测点正确判断,而应该是地震现场决策者对整个微观和宏观异常的监测(即决定 - 由县当地政府组织团队)。对网络综合地震情况的判断是决策者对他们所期望的大地震“短期前兆异常链”的最终决定。

* * *

因此,历史教训是,要实现具有有效减灾效果的大地震的地震预报和预警,就必须改革目前的“封闭地震预测系统”(改革前应进行“试点”)。如果没有这次地震预测系统改革和体制改革,就不可能按照“大地震预警和预警的有效方式”组织大地震的地震预报和预警。

在这种情况下,只有经验前兆异常才能用于实现大地震的地震预测和预警;要做到这一点,本书的这种“有效方式”是实现真正地震预防和减灾的唯一途径。

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《大地震临震预报的曙光》本书有两个理论成果:(1)找到了解决地震预测系统困境的方法,建立了开放式地震预警预警系统; (2)从创新体系和创新组织的角度,预测和警告大地震的有效方法。

“在数百个地震案例的支持下,它全面讨论了经验地震前兆异常(包括微观和宏观异常),主流非主流预测,群体调查预防和群众参与,以及”中短期前兆异常链“。 “基于论证的基础。

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在7级或以上的大地震的情况下,可以实现真正意义上即将发生的地震预测和警告。

(纸质媒体出版物需要作者授权)

[1]尹海涛等。《现今地震预警技术及其在国内发展状况的探讨》,《中国地震》,第1期,2012年。

[2]成都市高新技术减灾研究所网站:《研究所简介》,2015年7月15日,网址:崔正等。《不应被忽视的危险》,《财新周刊》,2013年,第16期。

[3]记者韩迪:《地震预警到底是个啥》,《中国应急管理报》,第3版,2019年6月26日。

[4]李秀忠:《“大喇叭”企业地震预警爆红,合法性和有效性存疑》,第一财经,2019年6月18日。

[5] Wang Kelin等人:《预报1975年海城地震》,附录A,《美国地震学会会刊》,2006年6月,第3期。

[6]邱永海等:《自然电场法预测地震》,中南大学出版社,2008年10月,第14,15页。

[7]营口县政府地震办公室:《7.3级地震资料汇编(内部资料)》,1986年12月,第37,38页。

重要参考资料:

(1)解释海城地震成功预测的真正原因

本文研究了1975年海城地震成功预测的技术和制度细节,努力恢复历史真相。

(2)《大地震临震预报预警的有效途径》

本书论述了地震预测系统改革的“顶层设计”。本文是这个顶级设计的具体计划。